Methodology

Three-case underwriting with real delivery inputs.

River evaluates downside, base case, and upside using construction reality, entitlement logic, and capital discipline — not presentation-driven assumptions.

Downside firstStress-test costs, timing, entitlement, and exit assumptions.
Base case realismUse the operating path that can actually be executed.
Upside optionalityTreat upside as a bonus, not a requirement for viability.
Three-case underwriting with real delivery inputs.
How River thinks The model starts with what can go wrong, then tests what can still work, and only then considers upside.
Discipline 01

Sourcing

Central Florida discipline is about knowing which submarkets actually pencil and which are noise. We source through three channels: (1) ecosystem flow from Apice (engineering clients with land), FL Pro (GC clients considering a move to develop), and True North (marketplace distribution); (2) entitlement-first filtering — we pass on retail homebuyer comps and focus on entitled or near-entitled infill and value-add; (3) a disciplined "no" rate — most deals get eliminated at screening.

Funnel

Ecosystem flow → Entitlement filter → Three-case screen → Shortlist

3-Case Model
Downside

Must still work

Base

Realistic expectation

Upside

Bonus, not a reason

Discipline 02

Underwriting

Every deal is modeled three ways. The Downside case assumes cost overruns, a soft exit market, and extended timelines; it must still produce an acceptable outcome before we proceed. The Base case uses realistic assumptions supported by comps and our own GC estimating. The Upside case is modeled but not relied on. Cost basis comes from FL Pro's estimating team — not from spreadsheet averages.

Discipline 03

Execution

FL Pro (the licensed GC arm) manages construction. Apice handles engineering and permitting. Crown delivers finishes. One schedule, one principal, one accountability line. This is where most small deals fail — the handoffs between a third-party GC, an outside engineer, and a separate designer create cost leaks that kill returns. We eliminate the handoffs.

Integrated Swim Lanes

FL Pro → Apice → Crown
One principal, one timeline

Monthly Reports

Draw schedule · Variance · Progress · Exit tracking

Discipline 04

Reporting

Investors receive monthly updates covering: draw schedule vs. actual, construction progress photos with caption commentary, projection-to-actual variance analysis, and exit market tracking. When a variance is negative, it is reported as negative — not reframed. Annual tax documents (K-1s where applicable) are delivered on schedule.

FAQ

How we think about common questions

What does "3-case underwriting" actually change in a deal?

It changes which deals we do. Deals that only work in the Base or Upside case get rejected. A deal has to still produce an acceptable outcome in the Downside before we capitalize it. This reduces deal volume but materially lowers capital loss risk.

Why does owning a GC matter for investors?

Construction cost overruns are the single largest source of capital loss in small real estate deals. When the underwriter is also the GC, estimating discipline runs through the whole cycle — estimate, build, report — without the informational gap that exists when those functions are separate.

What is your typical deal size?

Central Florida small-to-mid deals — infill SFR, small multifamily, value-add, and selective land development. Below institutional fund thresholds but above retail flipper scale. This is the underwritten segment of the market.

How are conflicts between the operating entities managed?

Each entity (FL Pro, Apice, Crown) invoices at arm's-length market rates for work performed on River projects. The rates and scope are disclosed in deal documentation. Economic alignment flows through the principal, not through opaque inter-company pricing.

Is River a fund?

No. River is a developer that structures individual deals deal-by-deal. Investor participation is evaluated on a per-deal basis, where applicable, and requires accredited investor verification plus formal offering documentation.

See the methodology in a real deal.

Request a confidential deal summary or submit your own project for review.